The United States continued a day of positive economic news and stock gains. Possibly responding to news of economic growth, and hence future inflation as the vastly-increased money supply begins to spill from banks and into the rest of the economy. Poor British economic news sent the pound lower against foreign currencies as monthly manufacturing and manufacturing plus energy indices for August were sharply lower than anticipated. In a surprise move, the Reserve Bank of Australia rose its overnight interest rate 25 base points to 3.25%, which caused the Australian currency (AUD) to appreciate against the U.S. dollar (USD).
U.S. stocks continued a generally bullish attitude from yesterday’s better-than-expected ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI report which indicated that the services’ sector may be improving for the first time during this recession and may actually be in an expansionary phase. All three main U.S. indices rose on the day, led by the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) which increased to 2,103.57 (+35.42, 1.71%). The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) and S&P 500 (.INX) also rose on the day, both by 1.37%. Basic materials and energy sectors led the markets, likely on the continued rally for the price of a barrel of oil. Gold also rallied to record highs above $1040.
For our currency pair forecasts for tomorrow, we predict that the U.S. dollar (USD) will gain against most currencies, except the Canadian dollar (CAD) due to late-day trading and also a late boost to the Swiss Franc after giving up substantial territory in mid-afternoon trading. Several national information releases will likely affect currency and stock trading. In the U.S., month-to-month consumer credit is released at 3 PM EST, and abroad information released on Australia’s employment change and unemployment rate will likely determine whether the Australian currency (AUD) continues to rally.
CURRENCY FORECASTS
For each pair of graphs, the left graph depicts Tuesday’s currency forecast and actual currency data while the right graph depicts Wednesday’s currency forecast. Green is Tuesday’s forecast; red is Tuesday’s actual trading data; and blue is Wednesday’s forecast. The time is GMT +1, also known as the time in Western Europe or 6 hours ahead of Eastern Standard Time. In other words, the forecasts extend from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 PM Wednesday. We list the data based on military time. Thus, our graphs begin with 18:00 or 6 PM today and extend until 18:00 the next day.
Our forecasts are again powered by iPredict’s powerful Microsoft Excel-integrated forecasting specialty software.
We predict out 24 hours of data based on the previous 12 weeks of hourly foreign exchange rate and precious metal’s data as provided by the Russian stock market news and information website Forexite.com.
Forecasts: Tuesday’s Forecast and Actual Trading Data and Wednesday’s Forecast
EUR/USD
While we predicted a generally mild day of trading between the euro (EUR) and the U.S. dollar (USD), the euro actually rallied for much fo the day beginning Monday night. Interestingly, our forecast did seem to mimic a late-morning bump and fall. Final Q2 GDP data for the euro-region will likely affect euro currency trading.
USD/JPY
Similar to the euro, the Japanese yen (JPY) rallied against the U.S. dollar beginning Monday night and never really looked back. Investors are likely flocking to the yen given good American economic news, prompting some to seek higher-yielding, higher-risk currencies. A better-than-forecasted leading indicators report tomorrow could continue the yen rally.
GBP/USD
Poor manufacturing and industry news from Great Britain dramatically hurt the British pound (GBP) after reaching intra-day highs just around 3 AM EST. The dollar rallied on poor British news to a support band of about US$1.59. However, a late-Monday Nationwide Consumer Confidence report that beat estimates may improve the pound’s recovery.
AUD/USD
Not surprisingly, the Australian dollar (AUD) rallied against the U.S. dollar (USD) on news that the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its overnight interest rate 25 base points from 3.00 to 3.25, signaling a tighter monetary policy. Fewer A$ mean less inflation, which is why investors scrambled to pick up Aussies to hedge against future inflation elsewhere.
USD/CAD
Our prediction for the Canadian dollar (CAD) predicted a mostly uneventful day of trading, but here as elsewhere a positive domestic stock rally meant investors felt more comfortable with other currencies abroad. The Canadian dollar reached about C$1.056 as crude oil traded near $71 a barrel.
USD/CHF
Similar to other currency pairs, a prediction of a mild dollar gain did not hold as the Swiss currency (CHF) gained in late-Monday trading and held onto gains throughout Tuesday. The Swiss unemployment rate is expected to be released overnight EST and will likely affect the Franc’s currency moving forward.
Review of Exchange Rate Forecasts
Sumfolio is still beginning its work creating forecasts for currency pairs, and these efforts demonstrate this. The forecasting software powering our forecasts, by iPredict helpfully provides numerous avenues of research and statistical model building we are just beginning to explore.
Our current forecasts use iPredict’s Wavelet forecasting technique, though we are continuing to explore ways to better forecast exchange rate data.
Our forecasts for currency pairs for tomorrow predicts further declines of the U.S. dollar, a prospect that seems likely if domestic economic news continues to be positive and investors feel better about putting resources in more high-risk currencies.
PRECIOUS METALS FORECAST
Again, we predict out 24 hours of data based on the previous 12 weeks of hourly foreign exchange rate and precious metal’s data as provided by the Russian website Forexite.com.
Forecasts: Tuesday’s Forecast and Actual Trading Data and Wednesday’s Forecast
We are still beginning our forecasts of both gold and silver. These seem considerably more difficult to forecast and build statistical models for than foreign exchange rates and they will likely evolve considerably over time.
GOLD
THe price of an ounce of gold made a historic leap today, all the way above $1040 an ounce. Our forecast seemed to coincide for some time around this, but in early-Tuesday trading gold set off and did not return, dipping only slightly below $1040 before returning for the end of the trading session.
SILVER
The price of an ounce of silver also rose somewhat today, though not quite with the same drama as the price of an ounce of gold. Here too our forecast actually coincided with an increase in silver, but soon our forecast dropped back down to reality.
Review of Precious Metals Forecasts
We predict that the price of an ounce of gold will remain largely unchanged after volatile trading, at one point reaching a historic high above $1043. Silver will also increase above a support level of abvout $17.3 in Tuesday’s trading.
WEDNESDAY’S FORECASTS
First, here are the data for the six main currency pairs.
Next, here are the data for gold and silver.
Finally, here are the data for the other ten currency pairs.
Source:sumfolio.com
U.S. stocks continued a generally bullish attitude from yesterday’s better-than-expected ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI report which indicated that the services’ sector may be improving for the first time during this recession and may actually be in an expansionary phase. All three main U.S. indices rose on the day, led by the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) which increased to 2,103.57 (+35.42, 1.71%). The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) and S&P 500 (.INX) also rose on the day, both by 1.37%. Basic materials and energy sectors led the markets, likely on the continued rally for the price of a barrel of oil. Gold also rallied to record highs above $1040.
For our currency pair forecasts for tomorrow, we predict that the U.S. dollar (USD) will gain against most currencies, except the Canadian dollar (CAD) due to late-day trading and also a late boost to the Swiss Franc after giving up substantial territory in mid-afternoon trading. Several national information releases will likely affect currency and stock trading. In the U.S., month-to-month consumer credit is released at 3 PM EST, and abroad information released on Australia’s employment change and unemployment rate will likely determine whether the Australian currency (AUD) continues to rally.
CURRENCY FORECASTS
For each pair of graphs, the left graph depicts Tuesday’s currency forecast and actual currency data while the right graph depicts Wednesday’s currency forecast. Green is Tuesday’s forecast; red is Tuesday’s actual trading data; and blue is Wednesday’s forecast. The time is GMT +1, also known as the time in Western Europe or 6 hours ahead of Eastern Standard Time. In other words, the forecasts extend from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 PM Wednesday. We list the data based on military time. Thus, our graphs begin with 18:00 or 6 PM today and extend until 18:00 the next day.
Our forecasts are again powered by iPredict’s powerful Microsoft Excel-integrated forecasting specialty software.
We predict out 24 hours of data based on the previous 12 weeks of hourly foreign exchange rate and precious metal’s data as provided by the Russian stock market news and information website Forexite.com.
Forecasts: Tuesday’s Forecast and Actual Trading Data and Wednesday’s Forecast
EUR/USD
While we predicted a generally mild day of trading between the euro (EUR) and the U.S. dollar (USD), the euro actually rallied for much fo the day beginning Monday night. Interestingly, our forecast did seem to mimic a late-morning bump and fall. Final Q2 GDP data for the euro-region will likely affect euro currency trading.
USD/JPY
Similar to the euro, the Japanese yen (JPY) rallied against the U.S. dollar beginning Monday night and never really looked back. Investors are likely flocking to the yen given good American economic news, prompting some to seek higher-yielding, higher-risk currencies. A better-than-forecasted leading indicators report tomorrow could continue the yen rally.
GBP/USD
Poor manufacturing and industry news from Great Britain dramatically hurt the British pound (GBP) after reaching intra-day highs just around 3 AM EST. The dollar rallied on poor British news to a support band of about US$1.59. However, a late-Monday Nationwide Consumer Confidence report that beat estimates may improve the pound’s recovery.
AUD/USD
Not surprisingly, the Australian dollar (AUD) rallied against the U.S. dollar (USD) on news that the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its overnight interest rate 25 base points from 3.00 to 3.25, signaling a tighter monetary policy. Fewer A$ mean less inflation, which is why investors scrambled to pick up Aussies to hedge against future inflation elsewhere.
USD/CAD
Our prediction for the Canadian dollar (CAD) predicted a mostly uneventful day of trading, but here as elsewhere a positive domestic stock rally meant investors felt more comfortable with other currencies abroad. The Canadian dollar reached about C$1.056 as crude oil traded near $71 a barrel.
USD/CHF
Similar to other currency pairs, a prediction of a mild dollar gain did not hold as the Swiss currency (CHF) gained in late-Monday trading and held onto gains throughout Tuesday. The Swiss unemployment rate is expected to be released overnight EST and will likely affect the Franc’s currency moving forward.
Review of Exchange Rate Forecasts
Sumfolio is still beginning its work creating forecasts for currency pairs, and these efforts demonstrate this. The forecasting software powering our forecasts, by iPredict helpfully provides numerous avenues of research and statistical model building we are just beginning to explore.
Our current forecasts use iPredict’s Wavelet forecasting technique, though we are continuing to explore ways to better forecast exchange rate data.
Our forecasts for currency pairs for tomorrow predicts further declines of the U.S. dollar, a prospect that seems likely if domestic economic news continues to be positive and investors feel better about putting resources in more high-risk currencies.
PRECIOUS METALS FORECAST
Again, we predict out 24 hours of data based on the previous 12 weeks of hourly foreign exchange rate and precious metal’s data as provided by the Russian website Forexite.com.
Forecasts: Tuesday’s Forecast and Actual Trading Data and Wednesday’s Forecast
We are still beginning our forecasts of both gold and silver. These seem considerably more difficult to forecast and build statistical models for than foreign exchange rates and they will likely evolve considerably over time.
GOLD
THe price of an ounce of gold made a historic leap today, all the way above $1040 an ounce. Our forecast seemed to coincide for some time around this, but in early-Tuesday trading gold set off and did not return, dipping only slightly below $1040 before returning for the end of the trading session.
SILVER
The price of an ounce of silver also rose somewhat today, though not quite with the same drama as the price of an ounce of gold. Here too our forecast actually coincided with an increase in silver, but soon our forecast dropped back down to reality.
Review of Precious Metals Forecasts
We predict that the price of an ounce of gold will remain largely unchanged after volatile trading, at one point reaching a historic high above $1043. Silver will also increase above a support level of abvout $17.3 in Tuesday’s trading.
WEDNESDAY’S FORECASTS
First, here are the data for the six main currency pairs.
Next, here are the data for gold and silver.
Finally, here are the data for the other ten currency pairs.
Source:sumfolio.com
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