San Francisco 49ers (+6½) vs. Minnesota Vikings (-6½)
O/U (40)
Sunday, September 27 1:00 PM ET
While the Minnesota Vikings entered the 2009-10 NFL regular season as one of the top contenders to win the NFC title and reach this year’s Super Bowl, the San Francisco 49ers didn’t come into the season with nearly as much fanfare in beloved head coach Mike Singletary’s first full season.
Still, beating the vastly-improved, suddenly spirited 49ers, will be a task for the Vikings when the two NFC foes square off at The Metrodome on Sunday at 1 PM ET.
The 49ers moved to 2-0 SU and ATS with a convincing 23-10 win over the Seattle Seahawks as a 1-point favorite in Week 2 while the game’s final score played Under the 39.5-point Over/Under total.
Frank Gore rushed for 207 yards and two touchdowns on just 16 carries while quarterback Shaun Hill completed 19 of 26 passes for 144 yards and the team’s attacking defense limited Seattle to just 66 rushing yards.
The Vikings also moved to 2-0 SU and ATS with its 27-13 defeat of the rebuilding (again) Detroit Lions as a 10-point favorite in Week 2 while the game’s final score played Under the 45-point O/U total.
Veteran quarterback Brett Favre completed 23 of 27 passes for 155 yards with a pair of touchdowns while Adrian Peterson rushed for 92 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries.
Let’s take a look at tonight’s key trends and NFL Betting Odds, followed by my in-depth analysis and NFL Expert Pick.
- 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
- 49ers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- 49ers are 4-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Vikings are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Vikings are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.
- Vikings are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
- Under is 4- 0 in 49ers last 4 road games.
- Under is 4- 1 in Vikings last 5 games following a S.U. win.
- Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
NFL Odds
- San Francisco 49ers +6½ -110
- Minnesota Vikings -6½ -110
- Over 40 -110
- Under 40 -110
Analysis: While nearly every key trend in this matchup suggest a San Francisco 49ers cover in this contest, I am going to play the Minnesota Vikings to narrowly cover the spread. They are playing at home in this matchup and should step up the level of their play, which has bee just so-so after visiting two massively-rebuilding franchises in Cleveland and Detroit.
The Vikings are averaging 30.5 points per game but will get their first look at a ‘real’ defense when they face a Niners unit that is allowing just 13.0 points per game, despite facing two fine quarterbacks in Kurt Warner and Matt Hasselbeck.
Minnesota is allowing just 16.5 points per game defensively and should be able to contain a San Francisco offense that doesn’t feature many playmakers outside of fleet-footed running back Frank Gore and maybe tight end Vernon Davis.
While I’m not expecting Vikings running back Adrian Peterson to ‘run wild’ against a Niners defense that looks very solid so far, even a mediocre game for ‘A.D.’ is somewhere in the 100-yard range.
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